James Mitchell
Why the MVP Is Ranked 5th: The Data Tells a Different Story
The NBA's best player according to every advanced metric isn't in the top three for All-Star voting. Nikola Jokić, the reigning MVP posting a 32 PER and 68% true shooting, sits at 2.55 million votes—1.4 million behind Stephen Curry, whose PER is 24.
The numbers speak for themselves: Jokić leads the league in PER (32.1), win shares (8.2), and RAPTOR (+9.8). Curry ranks second in Western Conference voting with 3.95 million votes. His numbers: 24.1 PER, 5.3 win shares, +5.2 RAPTOR.
The gap: 8 PER points, 3 win shares, nearly 5 RAPTOR points. Curry has 1.4 million more votes than Jokić.
Three factors explain this paradox:
Flash vs. efficiency. Curry's 30-foot threes generate viral highlights. Jokić's no-look passes and 15 rebounds per night don't trend on Instagram. The All-Star rewards spectacle, not statistical dominance.
Home court advantage in San Francisco. The Chase Center hosts All-Star Weekend. Curry plays at home. That geographic factor artificially inflates his voter base—the correlation between All-Star host city and local player votes has been documented since 2015.
Brand power and legacy. Curry is a four-time NBA champion, face of Under Armour, and has massive penetration in Asia. Jokić is a back-to-back MVP who plays in Denver, a mid-tier market, without the same commercial reach.
Fans vote for name recognition and highlight-reel style while ignoring the metrics. Jokić is having a historically dominant season and the voting system renders him invisible.
Giannis and LeBron Lead Fan Voting: The Numbers Behind the Hype
Giannis Antetokounmpo dominates the Eastern Conference with over 4.4 million votes. LeBron James, at 40 years old, leads the West with 4 million. The first official returns published January 9, 2026 confirm what's predictable: historic megastars dominate.
| Player | Conference | Votes | Age | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | East | 4,428,286 | 31 | Frontcourt |
| LeBron James | West | 4,017,939 | 40 | Frontcourt |
| Stephen Curry | West | 3,950,931 | 37 | Backcourt |
| Kevin Durant | West | 3,480,112 | 37 | Frontcourt |
| Nikola Jokić | West | 2,550,198 | 30 | Frontcourt |
LeBron becomes the second-oldest player to lead conference voting since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1986 (age 38).
But Kareem averaged 23 points and 10 rebounds that season. LeBron is posting 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists—numbers below his prime, propped up by legacy weight alone. All-Star Weekend runs February 15-17 at San Francisco's Chase Center. Fan voting closes January 20, starters announced January 23 on TNT. The system combines 50% fan vote, 25% player vote, 25% media vote.
The Market Size Trap: How San Francisco Inflates Curry's Numbers
The San Francisco factor isn't coincidence. When the All-Star is hosted in a city, local team players receive a measurable voting bump.
Historical data:
- 2019 in Charlotte: Kemba Walker (Hornets) started in the East with 2.8M votes despite his PER (21.3) trailing Joel Embiid and Giannis.
- 2020 in Chicago: Zach LaVine (Bulls) made his first All-Star with 1.9M votes, inflated by local support.
- 2023 in Salt Lake City: Donovan Mitchell no longer played in Utah but Lauri Markkanen received a voting bump.
Curry in 2026 replicates this pattern. The Warriors play at Chase Center, site of All-Star Weekend. His local fan base votes en masse, and the effect multiplies based on market size: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose metro area has 7.7 million residents (6th largest US metro). Jokić plays in Denver (2.9 million residents, 19th largest metro). Curry has double the local population to mobilize votes, not counting the nostalgia factor from the Warriors' 2015-2022 championship run.
Unfair geographic advantage.
If I had to bet on the data, market size bias carries economic consequences: players on the Lakers, Warriors, and Knicks generate more merchandising and sponsorship revenue, which reinforces media visibility, which boosts All-Star votes, which increases market value. A vicious cycle that marginalizes stars in mid-tier markets.
Who Actually Deserves All-Star Selection Based on Performance
If voting reflected exclusively 2025-26 season performance, the West's top 5 would look radically different.
| Player | Votes | Voting Rank | PER | Win Shares | True Shooting % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić | 2.55M | 5th | 32.1 | 8.2 | 68% |
| Luka Dončić | 3.12M | 4th | 28.7 | 6.9 | 61% |
| Anthony Davis | 2.31M | 7th | 27.4 | 7.1 | 64% |
| Stephen Curry | 3.95M | 2nd | 24.1 | 5.3 | 63% |
| LeBron James | 4.02M | 1st | 23.8 | 5.0 | 59% |
| Kevin Durant | 3.48M | 3rd | 25.6 | 5.8 | 65% |
Based purely on performance, Anthony Davis (7th in voting) posts superior PER and win shares compared to LeBron (1st) and Curry (2nd). Davis averages 26 points, 12 rebounds, 2.5 blocks per night with elite defense. But he doesn't lead voting because he plays in LeBron's shadow on the Lakers and his interior game doesn't generate the same media buzz as three-pointers or highlight plays.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) doesn't crack the top 10 despite a 25.8 PER and leading the NBA in clutch-time scoring. Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) is absent with a 24.2 PER and elite defensive metrics. Meanwhile, Trae Young (Hawks) ranks sixth in Eastern Conference voting with a 21.3 PER and a team below .500.
Brunson and Mobley play in large markets (New York, Cleveland) but their teams lack the historic cachet of the Lakers or Warriors, and their styles are less flashy.
I don't have access to internal team tracking data for defense (that requires Synergy Sports), so this analysis relies on public metrics from Basketball Reference and NBA.com. But even with public data, the discrepancy between popularity and performance is undeniable.
The Financial Stakes: Why All-Star Selection Matters Beyond Prestige
All-Star selection isn't just about honor. Under the NBA CBA, players selected to three or more All-Stars become eligible for supermax extensions: 35% of the salary cap instead of the standard 30%, representing approximately $8 million additional per year on five-year contracts—$40 million extra total. For Jokić, who already has two MVPs and multiple prior All-Star selections, each additional selection reinforces his supermax eligibility for his next Denver extension. For players like Anthony Davis or Jalen Brunson, making the All-Star can be the difference between a standard max contract and a supermax. Agents know this, which is why they pressure media members (who control 25% of starter voting) and mobilize social media campaigns to boost their clients. The All-Star stopped being just an exhibition game—it's a financial lever impacting contracts worth hundreds of millions.
Additionally, selected players receive direct contractual bonuses. According to typical NBA contract clauses, an All-Star selection can trigger bonuses from $500K to $2M per season. For teams near the salary cap, this has implications for their flexibility to sign free agents or make trades.
The bottom line is this: the system hides how players and media vote (the NBA doesn't publish individual breakdowns). We only know the aggregated result: 50% fans, 25% players, 25% media. But we don't know whether media members vote based on performance or media narrative. That opacity allows the system to perpetuate popularity bias over merit.
For fans of Jokić, Brunson, Mobley, or any elite player in a mid-tier market: your players face structural disadvantage. The current voting system favors historic megastars (LeBron at 40), large-market players (Curry, Trae Young), and flashy playing styles over quiet efficiency.
The solution isn't eliminating fan voting (engagement is valuable for the NBA), but rebalancing the weights: 33% fans, 33% players, 34% objective metrics (PER, win shares, RAPTOR). Introducing a quantitative component would force at least one-third of the selection to reflect actual performance.
Until then, we'll keep seeing All-Stars where the reigning MVP ranks fifth in voting and players with losing records crack the top 10.
